Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -28.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | IU -20000 UIW +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +8 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | IU -34.0 (-26.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.9 (-29.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -25.3 (-17.3) | 153.1 (-23.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -37.3 (-29.3) | 151.5 (-21.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -33.3 (-25.3) | 146.9 (-16.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-15 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 18.4 (#6) | -7.7 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#51) | -0.37 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#51) | -0.54 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#13) | 0.542 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 56.0% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 47.5% | 23.1% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 20.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.81 | 1.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 66.3% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 12.1% | 7.5% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 16.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.7% | 74.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 61.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 56.2% |
Game Analysis
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