Betting Lines
| Spread | WCU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | WCU -1000 STET +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WCU +11 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | WCU -11.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.4 (-15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WCU -8.4 (+2.6) | 143.0 (-2.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WCU -5.3 (+5.7) | 145.1 (-4.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WCU -7.0 (+4.0) | 147.6 (-6.6) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WCU -6.7 (+4.3) | 146.9 (-5.9) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WCU | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-12 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 79.9 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#315) | -12.6 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#218) | -0.99 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#208) | -1.74 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#88) | 0.469 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WCU | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 33.1% | 35.7% |
| 3PT% | 24.5% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 37.9% | 42.9% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 24.2% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 10.3% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.5% | 60.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 60.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.6% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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