Betting Lines
| Spread | VAL -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | VAL -300 BRY +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +18 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | VAL -6.4 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (-28.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAL -3.2 (+14.8) | 143.7 (-25.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAL -4.6 (+13.4) | 141.3 (-23.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAL -4.9 (+13.1) | 141.1 (-23.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAL -5.8 (+12.2) | 142.1 (-24.1) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-11 |
| Home | 13-4 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-10 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 63.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#326) | -8.1 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#172) | -0.80 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#189) | -1.42 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#222) | 0.351 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.3% | 37.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.2% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.6% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.7% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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