Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 177.5 Over |
| Money | KENN +280 USF -360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +19 | 197 | Lost |
| Massey | KENN -3.0 (-22.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.1 (+26.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KENN -4.2 (-23.2) | 159.1 (+37.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | KENN -5.6 (-24.6) | 155.3 (+41.7) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KENN -4.0 (-23.0) | 162.2 (+34.8) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KENN | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 86.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#76) | 11.6 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#84) | -0.32 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#90) | -0.34 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#289) | 0.433 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KENN | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 56.1% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 43.3 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 17.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 63.2% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 17.9% | 46.1% |
| FT Rate | 35.1% | 39.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 35.8% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 25.6% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.8% | 38.6% |
Game Analysis
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