Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -700 DUQ +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +10 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -16.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -15.0 (-5.0) | 154.8 (+9.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | VILL -13.5 (-3.5) | 153.0 (+11.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | VILL -13.8 (-3.8) | 151.6 (+12.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -13.7 (-3.7) | 153.0 (+11.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-6 |
| Away | 9-3 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 76.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#40) | 1.8 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#200) | 1.41 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#194) | 2.15 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#221) | 0.580 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 39.7 |
| OREB / G | 17.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.78 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 44.3% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.0% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 43.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 41.4% |
Game Analysis
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