Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | DART -110 APP -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DART win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +8 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | DART -2.6 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (+23.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DART -0.6 (-8.6) | 135.0 (+27.0) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DART -0.1 (-8.1) | 133.1 (+28.9) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DART -0.1 (-8.1) | 133.9 (+28.1) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -0.9 (-7.1) | 133.2 (+28.8) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DART | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-16 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 5-8 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#325) | -4.1 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.60 (#349) | -0.73 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.02 (#350) | -1.27 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.069 (#363) | 0.422 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DART | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.6% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 80.8% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 34.6% |
Game Analysis
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