Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | CARK +260 SAM -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +7 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | SAM -2.6 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -8.2 (+1.2) | 152.0 (+9.0) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -2.0 (-5.0) | 147.2 (+13.8) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -2.6 (-4.4) | 148.1 (+12.9) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -3.4 (-3.6) | 150.0 (+11.0) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -14.6 (#353) | -4.0 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#243) | 0.06 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#247) | -0.33 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#172) | 0.435 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 29.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 17.1% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 34.4% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 30.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.0% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 82.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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