Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -25.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | CIN -100000 MSM +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +17 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -18.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (-13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -15.7 (+1.3) | 141.2 (-14.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -15.5 (+1.5) | 136.3 (-9.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -17.6 (-0.6) | 136.2 (-9.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -16.3 (+0.7) | 135.7 (-8.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-8 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#99) | -5.7 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.65 (#57) | -1.63 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#41) | -3.15 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#76) | 0.400 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | MSM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 25.1% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 36.1% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.6% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 12.0% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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