We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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44–5 on winners spread MAE 10.4 49 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida State @ Duke +19.2 149.4 91% 65–100 ✓
Boise State @ Fresno State -14.5 145.1 13% 66–61 ✓
Arizona State @ Utah +3.7 147.6 66% 73–99 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Mississippi Valley State -6.5 138.1 29% 83–58 ✓
McNeese @ Lamar -5.1 133.8 28% 68–66 ✓
Oakland @ Green Bay -4.4 144.3 27% 87–84 ✓
Delaware @ UNC Wilmington +11.5 154.3 86% 58–88 ✓
Marquette @ Georgetown -5.7 140.9 29% 76–61 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Baylor +12.8 150.9 87% 61–71 ✓
San Diego State @ Wyoming -9.4 132.2 17% 72–69 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Northridge +5.2 145.7 73% 77–103 ✓
Georgia @ Texas +2.3 145.2 62% 83–67 ✗
Santa Clara @ Pacific -14.8 148.5 14% 97–66 ✓
Kansas City @ St. Thomas-Minnesota +9.3 143.7 83% 59–65 ✓
Texas A&M @ Florida +10.7 144.2 83% 70–89 ✓
Arizona @ Iowa State +3.6 150.2 67% 67–84 ✓
California Baptist @ Utah Tech -4.1 145.3 30% 61–57 ✓
Oregon State @ Saint Mary's +11.4 133.6 85% 64–74 ✓
West Virginia @ BYU +6.9 138.7 76% 56–77 ✓
Boston College @ California +6.4 146.0 76% 71–82 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Northern Arizona -2.6 149.2 39% 83–73 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC San Diego +23.2 140.3 91% 55–100 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Irvine +17.0 137.2 90% 60–70 ✓
Portland @ San Diego -1.3 152.5 45% 80–82 ✗
Washington State @ Pepperdine -4.2 158.1 30% 90–83 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Seattle U -0.4 138.7 45% 63–60 ✓
Gonzaga @ San Francisco -6.9 147.4 30% 95–75 ✓
UC Davis @ Hawai'i +2.0 132.5 59% 70–78 ✓
Charlotte @ East Carolina +8.4 145.7 80% 76–78 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ South Florida -1.4 150.1 45% 69–63 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Indiana State +1.7 155.1 55% 77–95 ✓
Iona @ Canisius -4.3 139.8 27% 82–52 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Liberty +10.2 133.6 83% 85–80 ✗
Wisconsin @ Michigan State +4.5 145.0 68% 62–71 ✓
Manhattan @ Niagara -0.4 145.2 47% 85–70 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Bradley +4.0 140.5 67% 56–73 ✓
Princeton @ Cornell +4.8 148.8 70% 70–102 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Marist +4.7 125.6 66% 57–52 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Merrimack +1.8 136.7 57% 63–73 ✓
Fairfield @ Sacred Heart +6.6 144.4 75% 62–83 ✓
Siena @ Mount St. Mary's +1.2 143.6 59% 79–85 ✓
Evansville @ Illinois State +8.8 141.2 81% 53–62 ✓
Valparaiso @ UIC +6.6 150.7 75% 73–77 ✓
Murray State @ Belmont +3.0 149.6 67% 60–70 ✓
Missouri State @ Drake +12.5 126.8 86% 60–68 ✓
Illinois @ Michigan +2.9 158.7 70% 93–73 ✗
Memphis @ UAB -3.7 159.2 30% 88–81 ✓
Colorado @ Kansas State +6.0 139.1 72% 56–65 ✓
Rice @ UTSA +1.1 148.2 53% 56–84 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.