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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
28–12 on winners
spread MAE 9.0
40 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oklahoma State
@
Texas
|
+5.5 | 139.2 | 72% | 47–61 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Virginia
|
+0.0 | 129.9 | 48% | 59–68 | ✓ |
DePaul
@
Xavier
|
+11.3 | 154.8 | 85% | 84–89 | ✓ |
Arkansas
@
Auburn
|
-1.8 | 143.9 | 42% | 76–73 | ✓ |
Charlotte
@
Middle Tennessee
|
-0.3 | 129.8 | 48% | 65–66 | ✗ |
Tulsa
@
Wichita State
|
+11.1 | 139.1 | 85% | 63–81 | ✓ |
Marist
@
Quinnipiac
|
+6.6 | 139.7 | 75% | 75–59 | ✗ |
La Salle
@
Fordham
|
+4.5 | 141.4 | 68% | 61–69 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
Norfolk State
|
+8.1 | 150.9 | 80% | 56–73 | ✓ |
LSU
@
Vanderbilt
|
+5.0 | 143.2 | 72% | 68–77 | ✓ |
Louisiana Tech
@
North Texas
|
+9.0 | 127.1 | 80% | 46–74 | ✓ |
UNLV
@
Boise State
|
+5.2 | 139.4 | 69% | 76–87 | ✓ |
Tarleton State
@
Utah Valley
|
+8.2 | 138.6 | 78% | 58–72 | ✓ |
Cal Poly
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+9.6 | 132.9 | 82% | 54–64 | ✓ |
Stanford
@
Arizona
|
+7.1 | 153.6 | 79% | 84–95 | ✓ |
Minnesota
@
Maryland
|
+13.2 | 135.4 | 87% | 54–70 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Kansas State
|
+0.5 | 145.6 | 55% | 80–67 | ✗ |
Alabama A&M
@
Southern
|
+2.3 | 136.0 | 59% | 77–63 | ✗ |
Rice
@
UAB
|
+11.2 | 159.3 | 83% | 60–87 | ✓ |
Niagara
@
Siena
|
+2.5 | 130.7 | 59% | 71–65 | ✗ |
NC State
@
Clemson
|
-1.0 | 149.0 | 45% | 54–80 | ✗ |
Villanova
@
Creighton
|
+5.2 | 137.7 | 68% | 74–87 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Utah State
|
+3.7 | 155.8 | 65% | 76–91 | ✓ |
Utah Tech
@
Southern Utah
|
+2.7 | 155.3 | 62% | 75–76 | ✓ |
UC Davis
@
UC Riverside
|
+0.3 | 145.8 | 54% | 52–68 | ✓ |
Arizona State
@
USC
|
+3.0 | 140.1 | 63% | 77–72 | ✗ |
Rutgers
@
Purdue
|
+4.3 | 126.7 | 68% | 65–70 | ✓ |
Middle Tennessee
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+9.3 | 140.5 | 81% | 65–68 | ✓ |
East Carolina
@
Houston
|
+18.2 | 132.4 | 88% | 46–60 | ✓ |
Mississippi State
@
Alabama
|
+8.9 | 138.7 | 80% | 49–72 | ✓ |
Ohio State
@
Michigan State
|
+1.3 | 142.0 | 54% | 68–58 | ✗ |
Texas Southern
@
Alabama A&M
|
-0.1 | 137.0 | 48% | 74–61 | ✓ |
Temple
@
Cincinnati
|
+4.9 | 144.5 | 68% | 54–84 | ✓ |
|
UAB
@
North Texas
|
+0.3 | 133.5 | 51% | 76–69 | ✗ |
Tennessee
@
Missouri
|
-7.1 | 139.5 | 24% | 71–79 | ✗ |
Ohio
@
Toledo
|
+3.9 | 162.2 | 68% | 75–82 | ✓ |
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
Howard
|
+1.0 | 138.2 | 53% | 55–74 | ✓ |
Niagara
@
Iona
|
+12.0 | 136.8 | 85% | 59–71 | ✓ |
UConn
@
Marquette
|
-2.7 | 150.0 | 39% | 68–70 | ✗ |
Penn State
@
Northwestern
|
+0.9 | 131.4 | 52% | 67–65 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.