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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–12 on winners spread MAE 9.5 43 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Ole Miss @ Kentucky +16.2 148.7 89% 72–83 ✓
Nebraska @ Ohio State +13.6 156.1 88% 78–70 ✗
Green Bay @ Detroit Mercy +10.0 135.9 84% 62–79 ✓
Robert Morris @ Youngstown State +8.4 146.8 79% 77–73 ✗
American University @ Holy Cross +0.6 133.7 53% 69–63 ✗
Bucknell @ Lafayette +4.3 150.2 68% 82–81 ✗
Stetson @ Central Arkansas +0.8 150.5 52% 73–74 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Kennesaw State +4.9 154.2 69% 73–82 ✓
North Alabama @ Florida Gulf Coast +11.4 147.7 85% 72–81 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Manhattan -1.9 137.0 43% 73–51 ✓
Vermont @ Maine -16.3 137.5 13% 75–56 ✓
NJIT @ Stony Brook +8.1 140.9 78% 68–87 ✓
New Hampshire @ UMass Lowell +1.6 131.0 60% 64–48 ✗
Hartford @ UAlbany +1.3 137.8 60% 67–55 ✗
Binghamton @ UMBC +4.8 144.6 70% 68–78 ✓
West Virginia @ Oklahoma +5.4 137.8 70% 59–72 ✓
Western Michigan @ Eastern Michigan +4.4 142.2 67% 71–60 ✗
Ohio @ Bowling Green -7.6 158.3 21% 77–80 ✗
Akron @ Ball State -2.8 142.6 38% 79–60 ✓
Toledo @ Buffalo -0.3 156.9 50% 92–76 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Central Michigan -1.8 149.3 41% 75–61 ✓
Missouri @ South Carolina +8.7 138.0 80% 69–73 ✓
Duke @ Pittsburgh -14.1 137.2 14% 86–56 ✓
Kansas @ TCU -3.7 144.0 35% 64–74 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Oakland +18.8 132.3 90% 58–70 ✓
UIC @ Milwaukee -0.5 142.7 43% 80–69 ✓
North Florida @ Lipscomb +2.3 146.8 59% 65–74 ✓
Kent State @ Northern Illinois -6.5 135.3 22% 63–55 ✓
Michigan State @ Michigan +2.6 143.3 63% 70–87 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ VCU +5.4 131.6 69% 51–74 ✓
Florida @ Vanderbilt +1.1 137.8 55% 82–78 ✗
Purdue @ Wisconsin +0.3 144.2 53% 67–70 ✓
Cincinnati @ Houston +15.0 138.1 88% 53–71 ✓
Southern Utah @ Montana State +2.3 150.0 65% 53–69 ✓
Louisville @ Virginia Tech +10.6 134.7 84% 43–75 ✓
Nevada @ Boise State +11.3 141.1 87% 67–73 ✓
San José State @ Air Force +3.6 131.1 65% 54–58 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC Santa Barbara +11.5 138.2 87% 61–70 ✓
Arizona @ USC -2.6 150.1 39% 91–71 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Radford +0.6 129.1 54% 78–71 ✗
Charleston Southern @ UNC Asheville +10.8 144.4 85% 79–78 ✗
Hampton @ High Point +5.2 138.3 71% 77–84 ✓
Xavier @ St. John's +2.1 157.4 59% 66–81 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.