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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
15–7 on winners
spread MAE 7.5
22 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Charleston
@
Hofstra
|
+6.2 | 159.9 | 76% | 84–89 | ✓ |
Central Connecticut
@
Fairleigh Dickinson
|
+1.3 | 140.7 | 56% | 67–66 | ✗ |
Massachusetts
@
Fordham
|
+2.8 | 144.9 | 66% | 73–85 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
North Carolina
|
+7.4 | 157.6 | 78% | 79–88 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
Norfolk State
|
+8.0 | 143.0 | 80% | 46–75 | ✓ |
South Carolina State
@
Howard
|
+8.2 | 148.3 | 81% | 62–72 | ✓ |
Delaware State
@
Coppin State
|
+11.9 | 142.8 | 86% | 67–80 | ✓ |
Northwestern
@
Iowa
|
+11.2 | 155.5 | 85% | 61–82 | ✓ |
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
Morgan State
|
-1.4 | 139.9 | 44% | 48–82 | ✗ |
Bethune-Cookman
@
Grambling
|
+5.4 | 136.1 | 69% | 69–63 | ✗ |
Alcorn State
@
Texas Southern
|
+5.9 | 135.4 | 76% | 75–72 | ✗ |
Baylor
@
Texas
|
-0.6 | 137.2 | 48% | 68–61 | ✓ |
Kansas State
@
Texas Tech
|
+12.1 | 138.6 | 86% | 68–73 | ✓ |
San Diego State
@
Wyoming
|
+2.3 | 130.3 | 58% | 73–66 | ✗ |
Jackson State
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+1.6 | 135.8 | 60% | 59–53 | ✗ |
Florida A&M
@
Southern
|
+9.4 | 138.6 | 82% | 51–58 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
Fresno State
|
+9.9 | 136.3 | 83% | 68–71 | ✓ |
UCLA
@
Washington
|
-10.8 | 145.4 | 17% | 77–66 | ✓ |
Washington State
@
Oregon State
|
-9.7 | 140.3 | 17% | 103–97 | ✓ |
Providence
@
Villanova
|
+8.8 | 143.0 | 79% | 74–76 | ✓ |
Tennessee
@
Georgia
|
-14.4 | 146.5 | 13% | 75–68 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
Richmond
|
+0.4 | 137.3 | 51% | 55–53 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.