In North Carolina way back in the hills, there lived my pappy and he had him a still. "White Lightning" - The Big Bopper
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–12 on winners spread MAE 8.3 44 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Youngstown State @ Wright State +7.8 140.9 79% 83–93 ✓
Oakland @ Milwaukee -2.4 161.8 43% 73–60 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Northern Kentucky +7.7 152.4 78% 71–96 ✓
Green Bay @ Cleveland State -5.5 148.5 31% 88–73 ✓
Maine @ Vermont +11.1 132.0 87% 62–67 ✓
Elon @ Northeastern -0.1 158.8 52% 78–85 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ William & Mary +11.5 148.5 85% 89–97 ✓
Drexel @ Monmouth +4.5 129.4 67% 73–51 ✗
Hofstra @ Stony Brook -8.2 133.6 23% 71–76 ✗
The Citadel @ UNC Greensboro +9.2 148.4 84% 66–69 ✓
Old Dominion @ Georgia Southern +3.8 153.7 70% 84–87 ✓
West Georgia @ Stetson -0.8 148.8 44% 86–95 ✗
Queens University @ Florida Gulf Coast +1.8 161.3 61% 85–74 ✗
North Florida @ North Alabama +7.9 148.0 70% 105–91 ✗
UTEP @ Delaware +2.1 127.3 53% 70–69 ✗
Jacksonville @ Central Arkansas +7.1 138.1 76% 60–62 ✓
Kansas City @ South Dakota +6.7 151.8 78% 83–99 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ North Dakota -8.3 149.9 19% 91–80 ✓
Charleston @ Towson +1.2 135.4 49% 52–61 ✓
Arkansas State @ South Alabama -0.3 149.6 46% 87–91 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Austin Peay +10.2 147.0 84% 72–74 ✓
Bellarmine @ Lipscomb +10.0 154.0 84% 71–81 ✓
California Baptist @ Abilene Christian -0.4 135.7 49% 74–58 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ UT Martin +9.2 130.4 76% 59–65 ✓
Morehead State @ Tennessee State +7.6 143.0 76% 100–105 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Little Rock +1.5 134.1 53% 63–74 ✓
Tarleton State @ Southern Utah -9.9 148.0 19% 105–106 ✗
Wichita State @ Florida Atlantic +4.2 150.1 67% 67–85 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Davis +4.4 160.7 77% 69–74 ✓
Idaho @ Idaho State +3.0 147.5 64% 68–76 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Weber State +8.4 156.8 82% 80–91 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee Tech +4.9 137.1 63% 71–54 ✗
Lindenwood @ Southeast Missouri State +4.5 146.8 68% 88–76 ✗
UT Arlington @ Utah Tech -0.4 136.7 43% 56–52 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Bakersfield -2.8 146.1 42% 75–69 ✓
San Diego @ Seattle U +8.7 142.5 81% 64–75 ✓
UC Riverside @ Long Beach State +3.4 144.4 70% 73–88 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal Poly -7.4 144.4 20% 86–66 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ UC San Diego +10.8 152.3 84% 84–79 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Portland State +4.6 151.6 71% 73–76 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State +0.6 145.4 53% 69–83 ✓
Gonzaga @ Washington State -16.8 149.3 13% 86–65 ✓
Creighton @ Providence +0.6 157.6 50% 88–93 ✓
Toledo @ Kent State +2.6 159.5 67% 84–87 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.