I'm the all night drug prowling wolf who looks so sick in sun / I'm the white man in the Palais "White Man in Hammersmith Palais" - The Clash
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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29–14 on winners spread MAE 8.0 43 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Baylor @ UCF -1.7 140.4 42% 77–69 ✓
Notre Dame @ Virginia +10.4 124.7 83% 53–65 ✓
Wake Forest @ Pittsburgh +1.1 143.8 62% 72–77 ✓
Cincinnati @ West Virginia -7.5 139.4 23% 65–69 ✗
Wichita State @ Tulsa +1.6 151.1 61% 68–79 ✓
South Florida @ East Carolina -0.9 137.0 42% 71–60 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Presbyterian +1.9 142.0 63% 73–80 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Gardner-Webb +0.8 145.9 53% 73–80 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Radford +9.8 141.1 84% 63–60 ✗
Army @ Colgate +12.5 126.3 84% 55–74 ✓
Navy @ Lehigh +3.9 135.3 67% 65–77 ✓
Chicago State @ Duquesne +13.7 130.5 86% 60–65 ✓
American University @ Lafayette +0.9 131.6 53% 69–66 ✗
La Salle @ Rhode Island +2.0 148.7 62% 69–71 ✓
Richmond @ Fordham -4.4 136.7 25% 83–69 ✓
George Mason @ Saint Joseph's +3.0 140.5 66% 73–75 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Bucknell +8.6 134.6 80% 52–67 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Mercer +1.8 133.9 56% 54–49 ✗
Furman @ The Citadel -2.9 146.9 38% 82–79 ✓
Chattanooga @ Western Carolina +5.4 145.0 70% 91–85 ✗
Lipscomb @ North Florida -1.4 153.6 50% 76–85 ✗
Austin Peay @ Jacksonville -2.8 142.6 46% 43–63 ✗
Indiana State @ Belmont -9.2 159.9 20% 78–72 ✓
Wofford @ Samford +13.1 159.5 86% 79–81 ✓
Florida @ Kentucky +5.6 169.9 72% 94–91 ✗
Rice @ Memphis +14.2 154.8 85% 74–71 ✗
Missouri State @ Southern Illinois +4.8 133.3 67% 76–75 ✗
UIC @ Evansville +1.0 139.5 63% 60–77 ✓
Valparaiso @ Drake +18.7 143.9 90% 70–81 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Bradley +6.8 141.6 76% 69–85 ✓
UL Monroe @ Louisiana +12.5 143.5 87% 72–80 ✓
Incarnate Word @ East Texas A&M +3.9 141.7 66% 66–71 ✓
Providence @ UConn +11.7 142.5 86% 65–74 ✓
Penn State @ Rutgers +5.2 141.0 71% 61–46 ✗
Arkansas @ Missouri +2.6 141.8 68% 91–84 ✗
Southern Miss @ Arkansas State +3.5 145.0 67% 71–78 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Auburn +19.8 140.7 91% 54–81 ✓
UAB @ North Texas +8.6 133.6 74% 82–79 ✗
Boise State @ New Mexico +9.6 146.1 78% 86–78 ✗
Santa Clara @ Saint Mary's +11.2 133.4 85% 77–82 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Green Bay +14.4 137.1 89% 56–79 ✓
NJIT @ Binghamton +5.1 137.7 68% 66–75 ✓
Maine @ UMass Lowell +8.2 135.9 79% 62–76 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.