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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
25–8 on winners
spread MAE 8.4
33 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
North Carolina
@
Georgia Tech
|
-11.5 | 152.6 | 18% | 73–74 | ✗ |
Marquette
@
Villanova
|
+0.5 | 143.4 | 52% | 85–80 | ✗ |
Illinois
@
Ohio State
|
-2.1 | 147.1 | 44% | 87–75 | ✓ |
Texas Tech
@
TCU
|
+4.5 | 151.8 | 73% | 78–85 | ✓ |
George Washington
@
Dayton
|
+13.2 | 147.8 | 88% | 61–83 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
Boston College
|
+2.4 | 145.5 | 61% | 75–80 | ✓ |
Iowa
@
Indiana
|
-1.7 | 154.7 | 54% | 68–74 | ✗ |
VCU
@
St. Bonaventure
|
+4.6 | 137.4 | 69% | 62–67 | ✓ |
Northern Illinois
@
Central Michigan
|
+3.8 | 141.4 | 71% | 77–84 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
Ohio
|
+13.0 | 143.7 | 87% | 70–91 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Ball State
|
+1.5 | 147.6 | 57% | 81–72 | ✗ |
Akron
@
Eastern Michigan
|
-11.5 | 135.0 | 14% | 77–46 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Kent State
|
+4.2 | 146.8 | 66% | 71–67 | ✗ |
Western Michigan
@
Toledo
|
+10.1 | 151.9 | 84% | 63–88 | ✓ |
Oklahoma
@
Kansas State
|
+0.9 | 138.4 | 51% | 73–53 | ✗ |
Illinois State
@
Murray State
|
+4.7 | 129.3 | 68% | 61–59 | ✗ |
Saint Louis
@
Loyola Chicago
|
+9.8 | 143.8 | 84% | 62–77 | ✓ |
Mississippi State
@
Ole Miss
|
+2.2 | 140.2 | 65% | 82–86 | ✓ |
Southeast Missouri State
@
Lindenwood
|
+3.6 | 135.1 | 68% | 54–58 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
Kansas
|
+12.7 | 141.0 | 88% | 54–83 | ✓ |
San José State
@
Utah State
|
+16.1 | 152.8 | 88% | 61–82 | ✓ |
Louisville
@
Clemson
|
+16.0 | 153.2 | 89% | 64–70 | ✓ |
Miami
@
NC State
|
+1.5 | 150.7 | 56% | 68–74 | ✓ |
Michigan
@
Michigan State
|
+10.6 | 144.9 | 86% | 62–81 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
DePaul
|
-12.2 | 144.0 | 15% | 72–39 | ✓ |
San Diego State
@
Colorado State
|
+1.8 | 141.6 | 65% | 71–79 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
Air Force
|
+1.1 | 141.1 | 57% | 83–72 | ✗ |
Fresno State
@
UNLV
|
+10.8 | 145.4 | 83% | 69–78 | ✓ |
Loyola Marymount
@
Gonzaga
|
+14.0 | 148.4 | 88% | 58–92 | ✓ |
UNC Greensboro
@
VMI
|
-13.2 | 147.0 | 14% | 85–79 | ✓ |
Northwestern
@
Purdue
|
+14.0 | 151.9 | 88% | 96–105 | ✓ |
Alabama
@
Georgia
|
-6.6 | 164.5 | 27% | 85–76 | ✓ |
St. John's
@
Xavier
|
+1.4 | 148.5 | 59% | 77–88 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.