Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | TCU -200 TTU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +7 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -5.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -5.0 (+2.0) | 150.6 (+12.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -5.6 (+1.4) | 149.1 (+13.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -4.5 (+2.5) | 150.8 (+12.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -4.5 (+2.5) | 151.8 (+11.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | TCU 73 – 65 TTU |
| Feb 19, 2025 | TCU 69 – 66 TTU |
| Jan 30, 2025 | TTU 71 – 57 TCU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | TTU 82 – 81 TCU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | TCU 83 – 82 TTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#20) | 12.5 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#32) | 2.67 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#37) | 2.82 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#71) | 0.613 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | TTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 36.4% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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