Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | VMI +800 UNCG -2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +6 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -14.3 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (+14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -13.1 (+7.1) | 150.2 (+13.8) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -13.7 (+7.7) | 146.8 (+17.2) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -13.2 (+7.2) | 147.0 (+17.0) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -14.4 (+8.4) | 145.4 (+18.6) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | UNCG 84 – 70 VMI |
| Feb 12, 2026 | UNCG 92 – 71 VMI |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UNCG 85 – 78 VMI |
| Mar 8, 2025 | VMI 64 – 57 UNCG |
| Feb 13, 2025 | UNCG 80 – 54 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 12-6 |
| Home | 4-10 | 11-3 |
| Away | 0-15 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L13 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.9 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -15.8 (#357) | 2.2 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.32 (#357) | 0.99 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.82 (#355) | 1.07 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#351) | 0.556 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.56 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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