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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
36–10 on winners
spread MAE 8.5
46 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-1.2 | 123.6 | 40% | 47–52 | ✗ |
|
|
+14.2 | 130.2 | 87% | 53–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 142.0 | 67% | 71–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.7 | 156.1 | 87% | 73–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.8 | 145.9 | 56% | 85–71 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.5 | 142.3 | 41% | 68–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.2 | 134.6 | 82% | 72–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.2 | 131.3 | 87% | 53–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 132.1 | 58% | 60–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 143.2 | 55% | 66–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.3 | 136.5 | 39% | 72–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 145.6 | 76% | 119–113 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.8 | 153.1 | 68% | 61–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.4 | 143.8 | 21% | 74–78 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.1 | 144.0 | 44% | 80–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.0 | 132.5 | 78% | 55–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.0 | 135.7 | 81% | 58–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.6 | 138.1 | 48% | 80–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.5 | 151.6 | 70% | 68–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.4 | 149.0 | 86% | 85–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.2 | 136.0 | 72% | 69–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.5 | 157.7 | 86% | 74–89 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.5 | 141.1 | 37% | 68–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 151.2 | 56% | 82–95 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.7 | 134.6 | 25% | 86–61 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.2 | 144.9 | 48% | 96–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 150.4 | 49% | 97–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.9 | 141.8 | 67% | 55–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.6 | 151.2 | 26% | 93–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 138.6 | 75% | 65–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 138.1 | 53% | 59–53 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.9 | 137.9 | 27% | 54–52 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.1 | 156.2 | 80% | 59–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 145.7 | 65% | 64–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.5 | 146.3 | 77% | 70–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 137.6 | 58% | 89–78 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.0 | 137.1 | 47% | 64–67 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.6 | 133.2 | 31% | 75–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.8 | 143.3 | 88% | 73–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.0 | 152.7 | 83% | 82–95 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 145.0 | 62% | 82–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.6 | 154.4 | 83% | 74–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.7 | 138.8 | 88% | 47–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 138.1 | 70% | 67–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.3 | 143.5 | 22% | 85–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.6 | 133.1 | 38% | 84–68 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.