Betting Lines
| Spread | UND -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | UND -120 UNCO +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +10 | 184 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCO -0.7 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (+27.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -1.4 (-8.6) | 151.9 (+32.1) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -0.6 (-9.4) | 150.5 (+33.5) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -0.6 (-9.4) | 150.4 (+33.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UND -0.3 (-10.3) | 152.8 (+31.2) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 9-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-8 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#300) | -2.9 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#225) | 0.08 (#170) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#243) | 0.01 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#252) | 0.507 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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