Oh workers can you stand it, oh tell me how you can? Will you be a lousy scab or will you be a man? "Which Side Are You On?" - Pete Seeger
Omaha Mavericks
81 – 55
FINAL Big Sky-Summit Challenge
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
Baxter Arena · January 4, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread OMA -3.5 Home covered
O/U 144.5 Under
Money OMA -163 / NAU +163
Model Predictions
Spread Total OMA win
Actual OMA +26 136 Won
Massey OMA -5.8 (+20.2) — —
Massey Totals — 138.1 (-2.1) —
Bradley-Terry — — 28% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 40% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ OMA -2.6 (+23.4) 139.3 (-3.3) 69% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML OMA -4.0 (+22.0) 140.3 (-4.3) 64% ✓
Baseline ML OMA -3.9 (+22.1) 141.8 (-5.8) 67% ✓
Baseline Plus ML OMA -4.7 (+21.3) 141.4 (-5.4) 69% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings OMA NAU
Overall 15-18 14-19
Conference 7-9 7-11
Home 11-3 7-5
Away 2-13 6-12
Neutral 2-2 1-2
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 72.3 68.6
Avg Pts Against 74.7 76.6
Massey -5.2 (#262) -6.5 (#281)
Bradley-Terry -1.43 (#295) 0.37 (#145)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.54 (#280) -0.12 (#183)
RPI 0.414 (#311) 0.516 (#145)
Shooting & Four Factors OMA NAU
FG% 41.2% 44.0%
3PT% 28.9% 32.4%
REB / G 31.9 29.8
OREB / G 9.2 7.2
AST / TO 0.81 1.02
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.0% 50.1%
TOV% 16.5% 19.3%
ORB% 25.9% 20.9%
FT Rate 31.4% 16.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.5% 53.6%
Opp TOV% 17.2% 19.2%
DRB% 68.7% 69.7%
Opp FT Rate 25.3% 29.0%

Game Analysis

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