Betting Lines
| Spread | OMA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | OMA -163 NAU +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OMA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OMA +26 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | OMA -5.8 (+20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OMA -2.6 (+23.4) | 139.3 (-3.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OMA -4.0 (+22.0) | 140.3 (-4.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OMA -3.9 (+22.1) | 141.8 (-5.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OMA -4.7 (+21.3) | 141.4 (-5.4) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OMA | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-5 |
| Away | 2-13 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#262) | -6.5 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#295) | 0.37 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#280) | -0.12 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.414 (#311) | 0.516 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OMA | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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