Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | VAL +500 BRAD -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +25 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | BRAD -6.6 (-18.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (+14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -7.5 (-17.5) | 134.9 (+12.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -7.2 (-17.8) | 133.0 (+14.0) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -6.7 (-18.3) | 134.6 (+12.4) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -6.3 (-18.7) | 133.8 (+13.2) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BRAD 90 – 84 VAL |
| Feb 19, 2026 | VAL 79 – 72 BRAD |
| Feb 4, 2026 | BRAD 72 – 65 VAL |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRAD 70 – 65 VAL |
| Feb 27, 2025 | BRAD 76 – 65 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 13-7 |
| Home | 6-11 | 14-3 |
| Away | 1-13 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#311) | 2.6 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#311) | 0.90 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#300) | 0.95 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.416 (#309) | 0.578 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.