I remember one night the kid cut off his right arm in a bid to save a bit of power. "So It Goes" - Nick Lowe
Valparaiso Beacons
61 – 86
FINAL Conference
Bradley Braves
Missouri Valley Conference · Athletics-Recreation Center · January 4, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread BRAD -10.5 Away covered
O/U 135.5 Over
Money VAL +500 / BRAD -600
Model Predictions
Spread Total VAL win
Actual BRAD +25 147 Lost
Massey BRAD -6.6 (-18.4) — —
Massey Totals — 132.1 (+14.9) —
Bradley-Terry — — 15% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 13% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ BRAD -7.5 (-17.5) 134.9 (+12.1) 25% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML BRAD -7.2 (-17.8) 133.0 (+14.0) 24% ✓
Baseline ML BRAD -6.7 (-18.3) 134.6 (+12.4) 25% ✓
Baseline Plus ML BRAD -6.3 (-18.7) 133.8 (+13.2) 29% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 7, 2026 BRAD 90 – 84 VAL
Feb 19, 2026 VAL 79 – 72 BRAD
Feb 4, 2026 BRAD 72 – 65 VAL
Mar 8, 2025 BRAD 70 – 65 VAL
Feb 27, 2025 BRAD 76 – 65 VAL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings VAL BRAD
Overall 7-25 23-12
Conference 3-17 13-7
Home 6-11 14-3
Away 1-13 6-7
Neutral 0-1 3-2
Last 5 0-5 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 66.5 74.2
Avg Pts Against 76.0 67.7
Massey -8.5 (#311) 2.6 (#128)
Bradley-Terry -1.72 (#311) 0.90 (#103)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.92 (#300) 0.95 (#116)
RPI 0.416 (#309) 0.578 (#60)
Shooting & Four Factors VAL BRAD
FG% 39.0% 45.8%
3PT% 28.0% 35.4%
REB / G 34.5 35.0
OREB / G 11.1 9.5
AST / TO 1.11 0.93
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 44.1% 53.1%
TOV% 16.2% 19.6%
ORB% 28.2% 28.1%
FT Rate 18.1% 21.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.1% 46.4%
Opp TOV% 19.0% 17.5%
DRB% 66.0% 66.7%
Opp FT Rate 19.4% 25.6%

Game Analysis

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