Betting Lines
| Spread | WEB -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | WEB -220 SDST +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WEB +2 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | WEB -13.6 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.9 (+8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WEB -9.9 (-7.9) | 141.0 (+7.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WEB -14.3 (-12.3) | 142.3 (+5.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WEB -13.8 (-11.8) | 143.3 (+4.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WEB -13.8 (-11.8) | 142.1 (+5.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WEB | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-4 |
| Home | 12-2 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 72.0 |
| Massey | 7.8 (#68) | -1.4 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#101) | -0.29 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#75) | -0.29 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#124) | 0.500 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WEB | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 78.2% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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