Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -200 FUR +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +11 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -3.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -2.3 (+8.7) | 153.8 (-6.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -3.7 (+7.3) | 152.5 (-5.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -2.5 (+8.5) | 151.6 (-4.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -4.2 (+6.8) | 154.2 (-7.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | FUR 81 – 75 UNCG |
| Feb 8, 2026 | UNCG 67 – 64 FUR |
| Jan 23, 2026 | FUR 89 – 66 UNCG |
| Feb 15, 2025 | UNCG 58 – 50 FUR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCG 84 – 67 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 76.7 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#176) | 0.3 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#124) | -0.42 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#119) | -0.26 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#115) | 0.480 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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