I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
Southern Conference · First Horizon Coliseum · January 4, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UNCG -5.5 Home covered
O/U 147.5 Under
Money UNCG -200 / FUR +200
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNCG win
Actual UNCG +11 147 Won
Massey UNCG -3.4 (+7.6) — —
Massey Totals — 158.2 (-11.2) —
Bradley-Terry — — 88% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 90% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ UNCG -2.3 (+8.7) 153.8 (-6.8) 71% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML UNCG -3.7 (+7.3) 152.5 (-5.5) 68% ✓
Baseline ML UNCG -2.5 (+8.5) 151.6 (-4.6) 70% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UNCG -4.2 (+6.8) 154.2 (-7.2) 70% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 8, 2026 FUR 81 – 75 UNCG
Feb 8, 2026 UNCG 67 – 64 FUR
Jan 23, 2026 FUR 89 – 66 UNCG
Feb 15, 2025 UNCG 58 – 50 FUR
Jan 4, 2025 UNCG 84 – 67 FUR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNCG FUR
Overall 21-11 17-16
Conference 12-6 10-8
Home 11-3 12-3
Away 7-7 3-10
Neutral 3-1 2-3
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 73.3 78.8
Avg Pts Against 70.7 76.7
Massey -0.8 (#176) 0.3 (#161)
Bradley-Terry 0.67 (#124) -0.42 (#219)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.93 (#119) -0.26 (#194)
RPI 0.536 (#115) 0.480 (#206)
Shooting & Four Factors UNCG FUR
FG% 43.2% 46.9%
3PT% 36.0% 33.7%
REB / G 35.2 37.9
OREB / G 9.8 11.0
AST / TO 1.28 1.29
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.2% 54.9%
TOV% 14.7% 18.2%
ORB% 27.1% 29.6%
FT Rate 19.4% 22.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.5% 54.5%
Opp TOV% 16.5% 14.9%
DRB% 69.8% 74.9%
Opp FT Rate 25.6% 22.4%

Game Analysis

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