The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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24–9 on winners spread MAE 8.3 33 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue @ Maryland -8.2 142.6 19% 67–53 ✓
Norfolk State @ Tennessee +16.8 140.3 88% 50–87 ✓
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh +2.2 152.1 54% 70–57 ✗
East Carolina @ Florida Atlantic +17.7 146.8 89% 64–79 ✓
Iowa @ Wisconsin +8.0 154.0 76% 72–83 ✓
Wake Forest @ Boston College +1.6 152.1 43% 84–78 ✗
Creighton @ Georgetown -10.4 145.7 19% 77–60 ✓
Ball State @ Kent State +9.1 145.1 78% 69–82 ✓
Buffalo @ Central Michigan +3.1 139.1 44% 76–64 ✗
Eastern Michigan @ Bowling Green +9.0 138.8 81% 90–92 ✓
Western Michigan @ Miami (OH) +5.0 149.1 69% 83–74 ✗
Toledo @ Ohio +0.7 154.2 58% 86–77 ✗
UAlbany @ Harvard +5.8 149.3 74% 71–76 ✓
Vermont @ Brown -2.7 135.3 36% 71–70 ✓
Cornell @ Baylor +13.9 160.8 87% 79–98 ✓
UIC @ Murray State -3.3 137.3 42% 73–85 ✗
Belmont @ Southern Illinois +9.8 146.4 82% 63–73 ✓
Chicago State @ Kansas State +13.5 135.8 87% 55–62 ✓
Akron @ Northern Illinois -2.5 147.4 34% 73–51 ✓
San José State @ Wyoming +2.4 145.4 67% 73–75 ✓
Butler @ St. John's +4.8 152.9 71% 70–86 ✓
Northwestern @ Illinois +10.3 141.2 83% 66–96 ✓
Syracuse @ Duke +11.1 150.5 83% 66–86 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Auburn +18.0 153.3 90% 68–88 ✓
Charlotte @ SMU +11.0 137.3 84% 54–66 ✓
UAB @ UTSA +0.2 158.2 50% 78–76 ✗
Illinois State @ Drake +12.3 137.2 86% 71–88 ✓
New Mexico @ Colorado State +4.5 151.4 71% 68–76 ✓
Yale @ Howard -1.3 144.6 46% 86–78 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ UNC Asheville +5.6 144.0 72% 67–95 ✓
Seton Hall @ Providence +6.1 138.3 74% 61–57 ✗
Longwood @ Winthrop -0.2 139.9 49% 60–68 ✗
George Mason @ La Salle -2.9 144.3 38% 77–62 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.