Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | KSU -4500 CHST +1550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +7 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | KSU -18.4 (-11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (-21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -19.0 (-12.0) | 138.3 (-21.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -14.6 (-7.6) | 136.5 (-19.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -13.5 (-6.5) | 135.8 (-18.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -12.9 (-5.9) | 136.7 (-19.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 0-0 |
| Home | 14-3 | 6-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 5.8 (#85) | -8.0 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#62) | -1.17 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#89) | -1.86 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#70) | 0.436 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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