Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
| Money | WIN -178 LONG +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +8 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | WIN -2.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -0.2 (+7.8) | 141.0 (-13.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -0.7 (+7.3) | 138.5 (-10.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -0.2 (+8.2) | 139.9 (-11.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -0.4 (+7.6) | 141.3 (-13.3) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | WIN 79 – 74 LONG |
| Dec 31, 2025 | LONG 82 – 70 WIN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | WIN 88 – 79 LONG |
| Feb 28, 2025 | WIN 85 – 59 LONG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | WIN 95 – 76 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 6-10 |
| Home | 9-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#146) | 3.7 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#183) | 0.83 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#165) | 0.59 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#153) | 0.517 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 37.2% |
| FT Rate | 34.8% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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