Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
| Money | SMU -345 CLT +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +12 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -12.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -8.3 (+3.7) | 135.0 (-15.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -11.0 (+1.0) | 136.8 (-16.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -11.0 (+1.0) | 137.3 (-17.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -10.3 (+1.7) | 135.4 (-15.4) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-8 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#41) | 3.5 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#97) | 0.25 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#86) | 0.44 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#141) | 0.526 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.9% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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