Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | OHIO -135 TOL +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +9 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | OHIO -2.6 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -0.9 (-9.9) | 155.0 (+8.0) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -1.6 (-10.6) | 155.1 (+7.9) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -0.7 (-9.7) | 154.2 (+8.8) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -1.1 (-10.1) | 155.3 (+7.7) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TOL 79 – 67 OHIO |
| Jan 14, 2026 | TOL 101 – 85 OHIO |
| Mar 13, 2025 | TOL 90 – 85 OHIO |
| Mar 8, 2025 | TOL 96 – 82 OHIO |
| Jan 29, 2025 | TOL 86 – 83 OHIO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#188) | 0.8 (#155) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#265) | 0.33 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#258) | -0.22 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#282) | 0.504 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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