Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Over |
| Money | SJU -278 BUT +222 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +16 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -5.1 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (-0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -5.5 (+10.5) | 150.8 (+5.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -4.8 (+11.2) | 151.5 (+4.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -4.8 (+11.2) | 152.9 (+3.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -4.7 (+11.3) | 154.6 (+1.4) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | SJU 92 – 70 BUT |
| Jan 7, 2026 | SJU 84 – 70 BUT |
| Mar 13, 2025 | SJU 78 – 57 BUT |
| Feb 27, 2025 | SJU 76 – 70 BUT |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SJU 70 – 62 BUT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | BUT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 9-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-6 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 10.9 (#45) | 10.4 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#71) | 1.69 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#70) | 2.30 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#49) | 0.594 (#39) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | BUT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 16.4 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 42.1% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 14.7% |
Game Analysis
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