Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -4000 PENN +1450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +20 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -20.9 (-0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -16.9 (+3.1) | 152.2 (+3.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -19.2 (+0.8) | 153.3 (+2.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -18.0 (+2.0) | 153.3 (+2.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -19.5 (+0.5) | 153.3 (+2.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 3-11 |
| Home | 15-1 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 15.6 (#12) | -0.8 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#37) | -0.01 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#38) | 0.40 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#28) | 0.491 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.77 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.7% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
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