Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 169.0 Over |
| Money | BAY -1600 COR +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +19 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -15.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -15.0 (+4.0) | 158.4 (+18.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -14.1 (+4.9) | 161.9 (+15.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -13.9 (+5.1) | 160.8 (+16.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -15.0 (+4.0) | 159.9 (+17.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | COR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 22-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-1 |
| Away | 4-5 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 16.3 (#8) | 5.0 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.84 (#46) | 1.99 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#53) | 2.23 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#79) | 0.562 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | COR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.9% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 47.0% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.4% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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