Betting Lines
| Spread | HARV -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | HARV -175 UALB +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HARV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HARV +5 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | HARV -6.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HARV -7.3 (-2.3) | 148.4 (-1.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HARV -5.7 (-0.7) | 147.8 (-0.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HARV -5.8 (-0.8) | 149.3 (-2.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HARV -6.8 (-1.8) | 148.5 (-1.5) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 18, 2021 | HARV 60 – 53 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HARV | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-13 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 5-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 7-5 |
| Away | 5-7 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 79.4 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#175) | -2.3 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#111) | -0.17 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#134) | -0.50 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#119) | 0.483 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HARV | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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