They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
Lavietes Pavilion · January 3, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread HARV -2.5 Home covered
O/U 152.5 Under
Money HARV -175 / UALB +188
Model Predictions
Spread Total HARV win
Actual HARV +5 147 Won
Massey HARV -6.2 (-1.2) — —
Massey Totals — 155.5 (-8.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 86% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 90% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ HARV -7.3 (-2.3) 148.4 (-1.4) 81% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML HARV -5.7 (-0.7) 147.8 (-0.8) 73% ✓
Baseline ML HARV -5.8 (-0.8) 149.3 (-2.3) 74% ✓
Baseline Plus ML HARV -6.8 (-1.8) 148.5 (-1.5) 75% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 18, 2021 HARV 60 – 53 UALB

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings HARV UALB
Overall 14-13 13-19
Conference 5-9 5-11
Home 9-5 7-5
Away 5-7 4-13
Neutral 0-1 2-1
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L3 L3
Avg Pts For 70.1 78.0
Avg Pts Against 72.6 79.4
Massey -0.7 (#175) -2.3 (#209)
Bradley-Terry 0.77 (#111) -0.17 (#195)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.64 (#134) -0.50 (#219)
RPI 0.534 (#119) 0.483 (#202)
Shooting & Four Factors HARV UALB
FG% 44.2% 43.5%
3PT% 38.0% 32.5%
REB / G 35.5 37.7
OREB / G 8.3 11.8
AST / TO 1.16 0.88
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.8% 49.4%
TOV% 16.8% 20.0%
ORB% 24.6% 32.8%
FT Rate 26.5% 25.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.9% 48.2%
Opp TOV% 14.8% 16.8%
DRB% 67.0% 70.1%
Opp FT Rate 16.1% 24.9%

Game Analysis

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