Betting Lines
| Spread | HARV -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UALB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HARV +7 | 113 | Lost |
| Massey | HARV -4.3 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (-36.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HARV -5.8 (-1.2) | 145.1 (-32.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HARV -5.0 (-2.0) | 143.3 (-30.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HARV -4.5 (-2.5) | 140.8 (-27.8) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2024 | HARV 76 – 71 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UALB | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 5-9 |
| Home | 4-8 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 70.0 |
| Massey | -10.9 (#337) | 3.2 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.43 (#357) | -0.25 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.32 (#357) | -0.16 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.156 (#350) | 0.688 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UALB | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 52.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 26.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 27.8% | 27.7% |
| ORB% | 20.6% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 49.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 61.5% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 50.0% |
Game Analysis
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