Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MUR -163 UIC +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +12 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | UIC -2.9 (+14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (+19.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UIC -1.0 (+13.0) | 136.8 (+21.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UIC -3.0 (+15.0) | 137.3 (+20.7) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UIC -3.3 (+15.3) | 137.3 (+20.7) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UIC -3.1 (+15.1) | 139.6 (+18.4) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | UIC 92 – 79 MUR |
| Feb 4, 2026 | MUR 81 – 74 UIC |
| Jan 2, 2026 | MUR 81 – 77 UIC |
| Feb 12, 2025 | MUR 63 – 53 UIC |
| Jan 16, 2025 | UIC 97 – 93 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 4-16 |
| Home | 8-8 | 6-9 |
| Away | 4-9 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#252) | 3.1 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#307) | -0.31 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#294) | 0.61 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#319) | 0.496 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 43.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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