Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.0 Under |
| Money | CSU -195 UNM +162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +8 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -5.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -4.0 (+4.0) | 150.8 (-6.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -6.0 (+2.0) | 151.6 (-7.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -4.5 (+3.5) | 151.4 (-7.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -6.0 (+2.0) | 155.4 (-11.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | CSU 82 – 74 UNM |
| Jan 7, 2026 | UNM 80 – 70 CSU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNM 87 – 65 CSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | UNM 76 – 68 CSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UNM 74 – 61 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 80.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 14.8 (#20) | 13.7 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#20) | 2.20 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.73 (#16) | 2.55 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.644 (#11) | 0.607 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.4% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 2.08 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.6% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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