Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | RAD -110 HPU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +14 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | RAD -1.9 (-15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -0.5 (-14.5) | 142.8 (+13.2) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -1.6 (-15.6) | 144.0 (+12.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -0.8 (-14.8) | 145.9 (+10.1) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -0.7 (-13.3) | 145.2 (+10.8) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | HPU 86 – 77 RAD |
| Jan 24, 2026 | HPU 93 – 83 RAD |
| Mar 8, 2025 | HPU 76 – 73 RAD |
| Feb 6, 2025 | HPU 78 – 75 RAD |
| Jan 3, 2025 | HPU 76 – 58 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 13-3 |
| Home | 8-5 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-12 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 4-0 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 82.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#165) | 2.7 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#97) | 0.73 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#102) | 1.22 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#105) | 0.526 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 33.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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