Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | NAVY -138 BU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +2 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -4.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -2.3 (-0.3) | 129.5 (-7.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -1.1 (+0.9) | 131.4 (-9.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -1.5 (+0.5) | 132.1 (-10.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -1.5 (+0.5) | 131.8 (-9.8) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | BU 73 – 72 NAVY |
| Jan 29, 2026 | NAVY 58 – 50 BU |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NAVY 82 – 77 BU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | NAVY 86 – 78 BU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | BU 87 – 65 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 9-7 |
| Away | 3-13 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#243) | -4.0 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.24 (#332) | -0.84 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.87 (#327) | -0.84 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.378 (#349) | 0.426 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 26.2% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.3% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 80.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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