Betting Lines
| Spread | SLU -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | SLU -135 LUC +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +7 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | SLU -0.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SLU -2.2 (-9.2) | 142.7 (+10.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SLU -0.1 (-7.1) | 143.2 (+9.8) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -0.1 (-6.9) | 144.0 (+9.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -0.3 (-6.7) | 145.9 (+7.1) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | SLU 79 – 65 LUC |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SLU 86 – 59 LUC |
| Mar 14, 2025 | LUC 72 – 64 SLU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | SLU 98 – 67 LUC |
| Feb 15, 2025 | LUC 78 – 69 SLU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SLU | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 15-3 |
| Home | 8-8 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#230) | 1.0 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#141) | -0.18 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#155) | -0.26 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#136) | 0.491 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SLU | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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