Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–13 on winners spread MAE 7.8 45 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Auburn @ Vanderbilt -11.3 162.1 15% 80–68 ✓
Florida @ Mississippi State -4.1 154.2 36% 81–68 ✓
Tennessee @ Kentucky -2.3 146.6 42% 64–75 ✗
Purdue @ Michigan +1.3 150.9 55% 73–75 ✓
Iowa State @ UCF -8.5 161.2 22% 77–65 ✓
Utah @ Cincinnati +6.8 136.6 73% 75–85 ✓
BYU @ West Virginia +2.3 139.2 58% 73–69 ✗
UAB @ East Carolina -1.0 158.2 46% 75–82 ✗
Syracuse @ Miami +0.1 164.2 50% 84–91 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Richmond -3.3 137.0 38% 87–80 ✓
Western Michigan @ Akron +19.3 156.1 96% 92–105 ✓
Toledo @ Miami (OH) +6.1 162.1 71% 80–92 ✓
Ohio @ Bowling Green -4.6 157.7 34% 86–81 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Ball State +6.4 150.8 72% 84–86 ✓
Central Michigan @ Kent State +7.5 127.2 75% 83–91 ✓
Buffalo @ Northern Illinois +1.5 150.8 55% 73–67 ✗
Arizona @ Kansas State -8.2 154.2 23% 70–73 ✗
George Mason @ Saint Louis -2.6 133.1 41% 76–74 ✓
Indiana State @ Northern Iowa +10.8 157.5 84% 73–88 ✓
UIC @ Murray State +1.9 152.3 57% 53–63 ✓
UCLA @ Illinois +5.8 148.4 70% 78–83 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Little Rock +4.6 133.4 66% 57–45 ✗
DePaul @ Marquette +16.9 149.1 94% 58–68 ✓
Alabama @ Texas -2.8 166.7 40% 103–80 ✓
Georgia @ Texas A&M +6.5 135.1 72% 53–69 ✓
Indiana @ Michigan State +10.8 148.0 84% 71–67 ✗
Colorado @ Kansas +17.8 141.6 95% 59–71 ✓
UConn @ Creighton +2.5 146.0 59% 70–66 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Pepperdine -1.5 140.1 45% 69–60 ✓
North Texas @ Rice -6.0 124.2 29% 67–61 ✓
Pittsburgh @ SMU +2.7 156.9 60% 63–83 ✓
Penn State @ USC +2.0 153.9 57% 67–92 ✓
Air Force @ UNLV +14.1 131.8 90% 52–77 ✓
Colorado State @ Utah State +7.8 149.8 76% 85–93 ✓
San Diego State @ San José State -7.9 135.9 24% 69–66 ✓
Northwestern @ Oregon +5.5 144.3 69% 75–81 ✓
Santa Clara @ Saint Mary's +8.7 140.5 79% 64–73 ✓
St. John's @ Villanova -1.9 143.8 43% 71–73 ✗
Colgate @ Holy Cross +0.6 140.8 52% 87–65 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Western Carolina -13.0 141.4 12% 67–76 ✗
Radford @ Winthrop +3.1 156.0 61% 74–78 ✓
Iowa @ Rutgers +3.0 167.4 61% 84–73 ✗
Oakland @ IU Indianapolis -3.9 140.2 36% 82–67 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Youngstown State -1.6 157.4 44% 71–93 ✗
Canisius @ Niagara +9.5 141.5 81% 60–71 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.