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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
14–4 on winners
spread MAE 8.7
18 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
North Carolina
@
Clemson
|
+5.3 | 154.1 | 69% | 65–85 | ✓ |
Southern
@
Alabama State
|
-2.1 | 144.3 | 42% | 81–82 | ✗ |
Florida A&M
@
Prairie View A&M
|
+1.4 | 154.7 | 55% | 78–67 | ✗ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Alcorn State
|
+21.3 | 128.7 | 97% | 39–86 | ✓ |
East Texas A&M
@
McNeese
|
+22.1 | 135.3 | 98% | 51–67 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
Nicholls
|
+7.4 | 137.6 | 75% | 72–60 | ✗ |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+1.2 | 138.1 | 54% | 75–85 | ✓ |
New Orleans
@
Incarnate Word
|
+10.6 | 152.4 | 83% | 65–75 | ✓ |
Howard
@
Maryland Eastern Shore
|
-6.1 | 156.6 | 29% | 77–57 | ✓ |
Arkansas-Pine Bluff
@
Jackson State
|
+19.2 | 162.5 | 96% | 78–94 | ✓ |
Bethune-Cookman
@
Texas Southern
|
+0.9 | 139.5 | 53% | 80–77 | ✗ |
Grambling
@
Alabama A&M
|
-3.2 | 145.0 | 39% | 72–61 | ✓ |
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
@
Lamar
|
+1.4 | 143.4 | 55% | 56–67 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
Houston Christian
|
-1.0 | 136.7 | 46% | 69–60 | ✓ |
North Carolina A&T
@
Campbell
|
+14.3 | 146.6 | 90% | 62–66 | ✓ |
Baylor
@
Houston
|
+11.4 | 136.3 | 85% | 65–76 | ✓ |
Charlotte
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+13.1 | 156.7 | 88% | 75–87 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
Nevada
|
+16.6 | 149.9 | 93% | 69–94 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.