Don't talk to me about your big, big heroes "Kelly's Heroes" - Black Grape
Southland Conference · Montagne Center · February 11, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread LAM -1.5 Home covered
O/U 143.5 Under
Money LAM -125 / AMCC +105
Model Predictions
Spread Total LAM win
Actual LAM +11 123 Won
Massey LAM -1.2 (+9.8) — —
Massey Totals — 143.7 (-20.7) —
Bradley-Terry — — 65% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 65% ✓
Baseline Plus ML LAM -1.3 (+9.7) 139.4 (-16.4) 60% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ LAM -1.3 (+9.7) 139.3 (-16.3) 58% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML LAM -1.9 (+9.1) 137.7 (-14.7) 60% ✓
Baseline ML LAM -1.2 (+9.8) 138.6 (-15.6) 61% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 14, 2026 AMCC 76 – 63 LAM
Dec 7, 2025 AMCC 57 – 49 LAM
Dec 6, 2024 LAM 65 – 61 AMCC
Feb 25, 2024 AMCC 75 – 61 LAM
Feb 3, 2024 AMCC 79 – 71 LAM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LAM AMCC
Overall 20-13 20-14
Conference 14-6 12-8
Home 10-4 15-2
Away 9-7 4-10
Neutral 1-2 1-2
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 67.4 72.5
Avg Pts Against 67.0 70.1
Massey -2.0 (#199) -0.1 (#166)
Bradley-Terry -0.41 (#210) -0.45 (#214)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.50 (#212) -0.47 (#208)
RPI 0.493 (#194) 0.489 (#203)
Shooting & Four Factors LAM AMCC
FG% 41.7% 47.6%
3PT% 35.5% 34.6%
REB / G 36.8 35.0
OREB / G 12.7 11.2
AST / TO 1.18 1.13
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.5% 52.4%
TOV% 18.3% 17.8%
ORB% 34.1% 32.4%
FT Rate 20.4% 23.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.1% 51.4%
Opp TOV% 17.8% 18.8%
DRB% 65.6% 68.9%
Opp FT Rate 23.5% 28.2%

Game Analysis

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