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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
30–11 on winners
spread MAE 9.4
41 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+13.1 | 143.6 | 88% | 66–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 148.6 | 64% | 75–72 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.0 | 140.1 | 37% | 49–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.8 | 142.3 | 58% | 76–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.6 | 149.0 | 88% | 69–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.2 | 142.9 | 89% | 60–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.7 | 132.5 | 69% | 83–67 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.6 | 132.4 | 38% | 60–54 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 131.9 | 70% | 64–57 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.4 | 152.2 | 69% | 57–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.3 | 135.8 | 76% | 60–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-13.9 | 142.9 | 14% | 88–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.3 | 133.8 | 84% | 76–68 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.2 | 140.8 | 62% | 62–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.1 | 139.7 | 49% | 80–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.1 | 139.2 | 87% | 64–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.5 | 137.3 | 17% | 79–51 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.5 | 139.3 | 27% | 81–85 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.3 | 141.2 | 84% | 52–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.2 | 135.7 | 89% | 64–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.7 | 155.1 | 88% | 62–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.3 | 147.3 | 85% | 57–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.2 | 161.9 | 86% | 103–99 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.6 | 147.6 | 58% | 72–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 137.7 | 51% | 80–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.7 | 141.1 | 83% | 70–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.6 | 161.6 | 89% | 71–101 | ✓ |
|
|
-13.7 | 136.6 | 14% | 74–50 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 141.2 | 66% | 70–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 138.5 | 71% | 70–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 159.0 | 66% | 78–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.4 | 146.1 | 82% | 66–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 150.2 | 74% | 77–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.8 | 148.8 | 81% | 73–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.3 | 145.9 | 21% | 73–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.0 | 149.2 | 84% | 76–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 156.9 | 55% | 60–82 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.5 | 137.8 | 21% | 73–62 | ✓ |
|
|
-12.9 | 148.3 | 17% | 77–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.3 | 142.4 | 78% | 81–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.5 | 138.9 | 84% | 74–71 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.