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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
27–14 on winners
spread MAE 8.8
41 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-0.5 | 161.9 | 45% | 77–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.4 | 137.6 | 88% | 51–84 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.7 | 184.1 | 49% | 87–105 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.3 | 157.2 | 83% | 72–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.8 | 130.1 | 74% | 48–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.1 | 142.7 | 90% | 66–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.7 | 152.4 | 85% | 63–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.3 | 145.7 | 74% | 67–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.7 | 154.8 | 69% | 71–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.3 | 149.0 | 20% | 80–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.6 | 150.0 | 82% | 75–90 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.8 | 146.2 | 23% | 71–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 148.9 | 60% | 66–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 134.6 | 68% | 69–59 | ✗ |
|
|
-9.4 | 145.6 | 20% | 78–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.2 | 140.5 | 34% | 69–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+16.4 | 133.0 | 89% | 61–60 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.2 | 144.8 | 40% | 97–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 142.8 | 50% | 73–65 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.5 | 136.2 | 30% | 69–76 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.8 | 140.4 | 25% | 68–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 151.5 | 50% | 72–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.0 | 161.8 | 79% | 79–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.5 | 134.1 | 36% | 61–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.5 | 151.9 | 83% | 79–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 147.3 | 66% | 98–101 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.7 | 154.8 | 75% | 77–75 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.8 | 145.4 | 36% | 75–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.0 | 139.9 | 66% | 71–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.1 | 141.5 | 58% | 69–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.2 | 138.0 | 63% | 83–92 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 136.6 | 75% | 63–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-12.4 | 153.1 | 16% | 101–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.5 | 143.6 | 85% | 68–90 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.7 | 149.8 | 19% | 100–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.2 | 148.7 | 84% | 70–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.7 | 146.7 | 82% | 73–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-15.6 | 150.8 | 13% | 104–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.3 | 134.1 | 43% | 58–62 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.4 | 138.2 | 67% | 76–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.5 | 134.3 | 54% | 56–66 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.