You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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32–8 on winners spread MAE 8.7 40 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Houston @ UCF -7.7 130.5 14% 67–59 ✓
Tennessee @ South Carolina -4.0 139.5 32% 66–59 ✓
Saint Francis @ Central Connecticut +10.5 136.5 85% 62–71 ✓
Long Island University @ Merrimack +12.1 142.7 88% 66–72 ✓
Wagner @ Sacred Heart +2.7 131.6 59% 60–57 ✗
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Le Moyne +4.6 150.6 66% 61–82 ✓
Boston College @ Miami +5.4 147.2 71% 67–57 ✗
TCU @ West Virginia -6.9 150.7 24% 93–81 ✓
Rice @ Charlotte +8.4 132.3 82% 64–69 ✓
Northwestern @ Michigan State +6.4 134.2 71% 49–53 ✓
LSU @ Arkansas +0.6 156.4 68% 83–94 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Davidson +1.2 135.9 58% 69–59 ✗
George Mason @ Rhode Island -4.4 140.2 33% 69–51 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ George Washington -5.8 150.3 29% 75–86 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ Richmond +4.8 142.9 69% 66–73 ✓
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee State +3.1 139.9 65% 64–78 ✓
Xavier @ Butler +1.1 151.9 62% 66–72 ✓
Fordham @ Massachusetts +8.8 144.5 84% 64–66 ✓
East Carolina @ SMU +10.2 139.4 85% 77–80 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ North Texas -0.6 136.1 45% 80–76 ✓
Houston Christian @ Lamar +14.0 152.3 88% 68–78 ✓
McNeese @ New Orleans -13.1 144.6 15% 81–57 ✓
UConn @ Marquette +0.3 145.5 42% 74–67 ✗
Radford @ South Carolina Upstate -2.6 138.8 42% 67–60 ✓
Northwestern State @ East Texas A&M +1.3 142.5 55% 80–83 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +12.7 142.5 88% 52–71 ✓
BYU @ Iowa State +5.6 143.6 79% 63–68 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky +14.3 160.0 88% 77–93 ✓
Indiana @ Minnesota +4.3 148.9 66% 70–58 ✗
Mississippi State @ Texas A&M +0.9 139.8 61% 69–75 ✓
Utah State @ San José State -11.4 143.7 16% 90–70 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ SIU Edwardsville +2.4 134.4 65% 57–68 ✓
Fresno State @ New Mexico +16.5 147.7 89% 58–79 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Hawai'i +6.2 143.9 81% 70–72 ✓
Georgia Southern @ South Alabama +2.8 149.6 60% 76–71 ✗
Missouri State @ Murray State +0.1 138.6 50% 60–35 ✗
Coastal Carolina @ Louisiana +10.6 145.2 83% 66–80 ✓
Valparaiso @ Belmont +9.8 146.0 84% 61–86 ✓
Pacific @ Pepperdine +8.8 143.7 83% 43–102 ✓
Texas State @ Southern Miss -0.4 134.9 45% 75–59 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.