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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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17–8 on winners spread MAE 8.2 25 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Duke @ NC State	-4.4	147.4	30%	79–64	✓
Jacksonville @ Kennesaw State	+5.2	150.4	62%	92–86	✗
Queens University @ Florida Gulf Coast	+4.3	147.3	65%	69–63	✗
North Carolina Central @ Morgan State	-6.2	146.3	27%	79–88	✗
Delaware State @ Howard	+5.1	144.6	74%	66–85	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Norfolk State	+10.1	133.9	87%	50–69	✓
SE Louisiana @ Incarnate Word	-3.0	140.7	37%	73–56	✓
Nicholls @ Northwestern State	-1.4	145.0	46%	68–62	✓
South Carolina State @ Coppin State	-6.1	127.4	19%	61–58	✓
Lamar @ East Texas A&M	-2.7	149.0	44%	70–53	✓
New Orleans @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+13.9	149.4	88%	60–73	✓
Houston Christian @ McNeese	+23.3	149.2	91%	69–87	✓
Northern Colorado @ Northern Arizona	-3.4	154.5	37%	82–74	✓
Alcorn State @ Texas Southern	+3.2	139.7	56%	82–79	✗
Jackson State @ Prairie View A&M	-0.9	142.5	41%	79–74	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Grambling	+4.1	131.6	73%	60–69	✓
Texas @ Baylor	+7.3	150.2	76%	85–93	✓
Florida A&M @ Southern	+10.0	136.9	84%	44–58	✓
Weber State @ Montana State	-2.0	142.2	42%	64–76	✗
Idaho State @ Montana	+8.2	140.6	77%	65–79	✓
Eastern Washington @ Sacramento State	-7.3	142.7	21%	91–88	✓
Idaho @ Portland State	+6.0	137.8	76%	57–72	✓
Holy Cross @ Army	+3.6	132.0	62%	84–68	✗
Coastal Carolina @ UL Monroe	+1.7	141.9	57%	75–71	✗
UMass Lowell @ Maine	-3.1	137.8	43%	65–71	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.