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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
37–10 on winners
spread MAE 7.5
47 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
-3.9 | 154.0 | 35% | 73–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.5 | 143.5 | 80% | 70–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 148.0 | 55% | 59–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 143.1 | 66% | 75–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 164.4 | 67% | 79–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 136.9 | 49% | 51–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.1 | 156.9 | 68% | 82–83 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.3 | 169.1 | 86% | 92–88 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.4 | 134.6 | 21% | 80–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 140.5 | 62% | 76–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.6 | 144.6 | 88% | 55–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.9 | 137.6 | 88% | 58–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.2 | 142.6 | 24% | 82–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.2 | 143.1 | 49% | 81–79 | ✗ |
|
|
-9.6 | 144.9 | 17% | 69–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 158.5 | 73% | 76–71 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.3 | 135.8 | 35% | 81–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.1 | 144.4 | 89% | 55–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 141.0 | 60% | 59–55 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.3 | 149.6 | 84% | 68–92 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.4 | 133.1 | 21% | 73–56 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 145.1 | 43% | 93–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 143.3 | 64% | 83–92 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.4 | 146.0 | 87% | 72–103 | ✓ |
|
|
-14.1 | 157.5 | 15% | 89–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.4 | 145.0 | 85% | 52–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.1 | 134.4 | 74% | 66–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 139.4 | 51% | 75–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.9 | 148.6 | 87% | 67–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.4 | 144.1 | 70% | 78–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.9 | 152.7 | 80% | 84–94 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.2 | 138.4 | 86% | 48–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.6 | 141.8 | 39% | 74–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.1 | 144.4 | 17% | 87–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.2 | 130.4 | 56% | 63–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.4 | 146.4 | 26% | 70–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 142.7 | 55% | 78–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.6 | 144.5 | 69% | 79–74 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.9 | 133.7 | 36% | 67–50 | ✓ |
|
|
-14.6 | 124.5 | 13% | 71–49 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 139.2 | 75% | 70–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.3 | 132.1 | 75% | 67–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.1 | 152.6 | 71% | 94–84 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.2 | 157.2 | 84% | 83–95 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.7 | 140.8 | 77% | 72–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.6 | 140.8 | 34% | 75–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.4 | 146.8 | 56% | 74–81 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.