Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | GB +160 NKU -192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GB +2 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | NKU -0.7 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GB -0.2 (+1.8) | 144.0 (+14.0) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -0.8 (+2.8) | 145.5 (+12.5) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GB -1.0 (+1.0) | 142.7 (+15.3) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GB -0.6 (+1.4) | 145.4 (+12.6) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | NKU 96 – 76 GB |
| Feb 5, 2026 | GB 87 – 84 NKU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NKU 73 – 60 GB |
| Jan 4, 2025 | NKU 78 – 60 GB |
| Feb 15, 2024 | NKU 58 – 57 GB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GB | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#236) | -0.2 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#156) | 0.37 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#163) | 0.18 (#158) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#111) | 0.500 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GB | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 35.3% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.2% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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