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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–9 on winners spread MAE 7.6 47 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Marshall @ Elon +9.1 139.8 80% 59–73 ✓
Pepperdine @ Santa Clara +12.8 150.2 87% 80–91 ✓
Jackson State @ California Baptist +12.2 142.5 87% 73–79 ✓
Pacific @ Saint Mary's +15.8 140.4 89% 60–70 ✓
Washington State @ Portland -12.2 149.2 15% 89–73 ✓
Fresno State @ UNLV +10.9 142.6 87% 77–87 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ San Francisco +12.7 135.8 87% 55–70 ✓
Indiana State @ Ohio State +19.7 159.3 90% 83–103 ✓
Northwestern State @ Texas +21.1 141.2 90% 53–77 ✓
Stetson @ Florida +26.6 152.7 91% 45–85 ✓
Hofstra @ Quinnipiac +1.6 137.3 54% 69–75 ✓
Stonehill @ Lafayette +3.1 139.4 64% 70–65 ✗
Navy @ William & Mary +9.1 154.9 81% 76–82 ✓
Pennsylvania @ Penn State +24.3 145.4 91% 66–86 ✓
Harvard @ Iona +2.9 137.5 59% 67–61 ✗
Northeastern @ Northwestern +13.3 135.2 87% 60–85 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Oklahoma +24.0 159.2 91% 67–89 ✓
Chicago State @ Illinois +24.8 149.0 91% 64–117 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Northern Iowa +13.8 147.8 89% 67–78 ✓
Stony Brook @ UAlbany +8.6 147.4 81% 70–77 ✓
Binghamton @ Marist +6.1 134.6 71% 51–69 ✓
Boston University @ Maine +6.2 136.0 70% 59–56 ✗
Le Moyne @ Niagara +3.0 142.1 65% 69–88 ✓
Norfolk State @ High Point +5.6 143.2 72% 77–74 ✗
Morgan State @ Minnesota +16.9 146.1 89% 68–90 ✓
South Carolina State @ Georgia +19.3 140.9 91% 72–79 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Youngstown State +9.0 138.5 83% 64–73 ✓
IU Indianapolis @ Milwaukee +12.1 151.1 88% 81–88 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Robert Morris +1.8 134.0 58% 93–97 ✓
Longwood @ SMU +17.6 150.9 89% 82–98 ✓
South Dakota State @ Alabama +15.8 159.4 88% 82–105 ✓
Belmont @ Drake +9.9 140.3 82% 46–65 ✓
Buffalo @ Temple +12.9 146.5 87% 71–91 ✓
UTSA @ Army +1.1 157.9 54% 75–78 ✓
NJIT @ Washington +16.7 135.6 89% 53–90 ✓
Wright State @ Cleveland State +1.3 142.0 58% 64–78 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Green Bay -7.7 156.3 24% 83–67 ✓
Missouri State @ Evansville -7.0 137.8 27% 40–57 ✗
Valparaiso @ Bradley +14.3 149.6 89% 75–81 ✓
UMBC @ American University +4.0 147.1 66% 96–93 ✗
Winthrop @ Indiana +14.1 157.9 88% 68–77 ✓
Weber State @ Oregon +19.2 143.8 91% 49–89 ✓
St. Thomas-Minnesota @ UC Riverside -0.1 147.1 50% 79–81 ✗
UT Arlington @ Texas State +8.0 146.2 79% 80–72 ✗
UIC @ Illinois State +5.4 149.2 74% 73–67 ✗
Florida A&M @ Tarleton State +2.4 130.8 62% 60–70 ✓
Toledo @ Purdue +17.8 151.5 90% 64–83 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.