Betting Lines
| Spread | IU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | IU -2500 WIN +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IU +9 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | IU -15.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -14.5 (-5.5) | 156.8 (-11.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -13.6 (-4.6) | 158.6 (-13.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -14.1 (-5.1) | 157.9 (-12.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IU -14.8 (-5.8) | 157.3 (-12.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-5 |
| Home | 14-4 | 16-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#62) | -2.0 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#66) | 0.16 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#63) | 0.11 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#44) | 0.500 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 36.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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