Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | LAF -215 STO +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STO +5 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | LAF -5.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -3.6 (-8.6) | 140.3 (-5.3) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -3.1 (-8.1) | 139.4 (-4.4) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -3.5 (-8.5) | 140.0 (-5.0) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -3.2 (-8.2) | 140.3 (-5.3) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 21, 2025 | STO 74 – 70 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-14 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#278) | -7.2 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#268) | -0.82 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#274) | -0.85 (#229) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#263) | 0.445 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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